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The cost of saying no.

Put a dollar figure on a security decision. Move the sliders to today's state, pin it, then move them to each alternative. Walk into the meeting with the table.

Facts you already have Options side by side No account, no upload
Expected loss / yr
$5.1M
1-in-10 year
$13M
Details

How exposed

The findings on the one system this decision is about. Watch which of these actually move the number.

A capable intruder who reaches this system gets in 100% of the time (opportunistic) and 100% (targeted).…
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Internet-facing systems are probed by automated exploitation continuously.

Network position

Who can reach this system once they are inside. Isolation changes how often it is attacked, not whether an attack works.

Changes how long a rebuild takes when the backups are gone — there is no supported path back.

How often

How many times a year a capable attacker gets a position from which this system can be attacked. Start from your incident history; nobody knows this better than a factor of two, and the model simulates it that way.

/ yr
about once a year after network position — ransomware affiliates, automated exploitation, commodity intrusions.
/ yr
about once every 5 years after network position — adversaries who want this organization specifically and will build what they need.
years
How long “no” lasts. A deferral is a multi-year decision.

How bad

What a successful event costs, built from facts you already have rather than a guess.

$137K a day.
Lost margin, payroll that keeps running, penalties, customers who leave. Loss is not revenue; this is the honest fraction.
Backup cadence

Everything since the last good backup has to be re-keyed or is gone.

Intruders go after the backups before they detonate. Immutability is what defeats that.

Untested restores fail the first time more often than not.

Copying the backup back over this link takes 5.3 days before anyone validates anything. Physics, not an estimate.
Same seed every run: differences between settings are the model, not the dice.

The decision table

Pin the current state as "Do nothing", then move the sliders to each alternative and pin it with its cost. The options line up here, over your 3-year horizon, with the cost of saying no as a number.